Iowa has allowed 32 points across four games. Not 32 per game. Thirty-two total, which works out to 8.0 per contest and leads the entire FBS.
Fourth-ranked Ohio State travels to Iowa City on Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET as the favorite. That line feels generous to the visitors.
Iowa Football Never Changes, And It Keeps Working
Every year the national conversation treats Iowa’s defense as a novelty, something that works against mediocre competition and collapses against real teams. Every year the Hawkeyes lead the country in some defensive category anyway.
Eight points per game is not a scheme gimmick. It is a program that recruits specifically for its system, develops players over four years, and refuses to chase whatever offensive trend is fashionable.
Ohio State Is Not Perfect
The Buckeyes are 3-1 and coming off a 42-19 win over Illinois, which sounds dominant until you remember the loss already on the record.
Ohio State has the talent advantage at nearly every position. What it does not have is any evidence that it handles a hostile road environment against a defense specifically built to slow down explosive offenses.
The Style Matchup Favors Iowa More Than The Spread Suggests
Here is my central argument. Iowa wins games by making them short, ugly and low-scoring. Ohio State wins games by scoring a lot quickly.
When those styles collide in Iowa City, the game tends to be played on Iowa’s terms. The Hawkeyes shorten possessions, win on field position, and force a favored team to execute perfectly for four quarters.
Ohio State does not have to play brilliantly to win this game. It does have to avoid the two turnovers and one botched special teams play that Iowa converts into an upset.
What Has To Happen For Each Side
Ohio State needs to score early. A Buckeye team that leads 14-0 in the first quarter forces Iowa out of its preferred game entirely, and the Hawkeyes are not built to win a shootout.
Iowa needs to keep it under 20. If this game is 17-13 entering the fourth quarter, the Hawkeyes have a genuine chance regardless of the talent gap.
My Pick
I am taking Ohio State to win and Iowa to make it miserable. Something like 24-17, with the Buckeyes escaping after a nervous fourth quarter.
But I would not be remotely surprised by an upset, and anyone treating this as a comfortable road win for Ohio State has not watched Iowa play defense in October. This is the most dangerous game on the Buckeyes’ schedule until November.
A longtime sports reporter, Carlos Garcia has written about some of the biggest and most notable athletic events of the last 5 years. He has been credentialed to cover MLS, NBA and MLB games all over the United States. His work has been published on Fox Sports, Bleacher Report, AOL and the Washington Post.