The Tampa Bay Rays won 98 games, swept the Yankees in the ALDS and had not lost in a while. Then Cleveland walked into Tropicana Field and took Game 1 of the American League Championship Series 7-3.
Game 2 is Tuesday at 8 p.m. ET, and the stakes have changed considerably in 24 hours.
The Pitching Matchup
Cleveland sends Parker Messick, a 25-year-old left-hander who grew up in Plant City, Florida, about 25 miles from the ballpark. He made two starts against the White Sox in the ALDS, allowed two runs in each and did not reach five innings in either.
That is the concern with Messick in October. He has been effective and short, which puts the game in the bullpen’s hands by the fifth.
Tampa Bay counters with Freddy Peralta, 30, a two-time All-Star acquired from Milwaukee at the August 2 deadline. His combined 2026 line is 10-11 with a 4.42 ERA over 169 innings, but it splits sharply: 5-9 with a 4.99 ERA for the Mets, then 5-2 with a 3.25 ERA and a 1.012 WHIP across 55.1 innings after the trade.
His first Rays postseason start went 4.2 innings and one run against the Yankees, the seventh straight start in which he allowed no more than one earned run.
What Game 1 Exposed
Tampa Bay pitchers allowed 14 hits. They had allowed 12 total in the entire three-game ALDS sweep of New York.
Drew Rasmussen was at 90 pitches through six and Kevin Cash sent him out for the seventh. Patrick Bailey homered 436 feet on the first pitch to tie it. Cleveland scored two more in the eighth on a Nathaniel Lowe single, then three in the ninth after a balk, a wild pitch and a Jo Adell two-run double.
Jose Ramirez went 3-for-5. Chase DeLauter was 3-for-4 with a home run and three runs scored. These are not fluke performances against a tired bullpen. Cleveland hit Tampa Bay’s best available arms.
Cleveland Should Not Be Here
The Guardians finished 85-77, the weakest record of any American League playoff team. They fell behind the White Sox 0-2 in the ALDS and won three in a row, finishing with a Game 5 shutout in which Gavin Williams threw 5.2 scoreless innings and struck out 12, tying the franchise postseason record.
They are now the team playing with momentum and nothing to lose, against a club that spent six months being the best team in the AL East.
The Math for Tampa Bay
Teams that fall behind 0-2 in a best-of-seven postseason series win about 17 percent of the time. Dropping Game 2 at home would send the Rays to Cleveland needing to take at least two of three at Progressive Field.
They have the better roster and the better starter on the mound Tuesday. They also have a manager who will be watched closely the moment Peralta’s pitch count reaches 90.
Junior Caminero and Jonny DeLuca collided chasing a foul ball in the ninth inning Monday. Caminero stayed in after a brief delay and said afterward he was fine.
A longtime sports reporter, Carlos Garcia has written about some of the biggest and most notable athletic events of the last 5 years. He has been credentialed to cover MLS, NBA and MLB games all over the United States. His work has been published on Fox Sports, Bleacher Report, AOL and the Washington Post.