Toronto and Baltimore open a three-game series at Camden Yards on Monday night. Both teams need everything. Only one of them has a realistic path.
Where They Stand
The Blue Jays are 77-79 and three games behind the White Sox for the final AL wild card, with an elimination number of three. The Orioles are 75-81, five games back, with an elimination number of two.
Both have been eliminated from the AL East. The wild card is the only door left, and Chicago is not the team either of them wanted standing in it, given the White Sox have won two straight and play Kansas City and Colorado the rest of the way.
Monday Night
First pitch is 6:35 p.m. ET at Oriole Park. Trey Yesavage goes for Toronto against Shane Baz, who is 6-5 with a 4.11 ERA for Baltimore. It opens the Orioles’ final homestand of the year.
The two teams also close the season with separate series: Toronto hosts Cincinnati, Baltimore goes to Yankee Stadium.
Form Could Not Be More Different
Toronto beat Texas 7-2 on Saturday. Kazuma Okamoto drove in the go-ahead run in the fifth, Nathan Lukes added an RBI and Charles McAdoo hit a two-run double.
Baltimore has lost three straight and was swept at home by Milwaukee, getting shut out in back-to-back games and managing four hits on Sunday. There was one genuine bright spot: Felix Bautista completed his comeback from shoulder surgery on Sunday, pitching in the majors for the first time since July 20, 2025.
Toronto Has the Roster
Okamoto leads the Blue Jays with 33 home runs and 89 RBI at a .769 OPS. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is hitting .263 with 56 RBI, which is not what Toronto is paying for. George Springer has 15 homers and 12 steals, and Andres Gimenez has 58 RBI and a team-leading 20 stolen bases.
The rotation is the reason this team should have done better. Dylan Cease is 11-4 with a 2.40 ERA and 239 strikeouts. Kevin Gausman and Max Scherzer are behind him. Louis Varland has 34 saves. John Schneider has had more than enough to work with.
Baltimore’s Season Was Already Over
Pete Alonso has been excellent, hitting .264 with 38 home runs, 105 RBI and an .858 OPS, leading the Orioles in essentially everything. Coby Mayo has 24 homers, Gunnar Henderson has 23 with 58 RBI.
The pitching never held up. Trevor Rogers leads the staff at 10 wins and a 4.07 ERA with 153 strikeouts, and Brandon Young is 9-5. First-year manager Craig Albernaz inherited a roster that looked like a contender on paper and finished nowhere near one.
The Honest Assessment
Baltimore needs to win out and have Chicago collapse. That is not happening, and the elimination number of two means it could end this week at Camden Yards.
Toronto has a marginally real chance. Three games back with six to play requires sweeping this series and getting help, but the Blue Jays control their own schedule enough to make it worth showing up.
The cruelty is that the team most likely to end Toronto’s season is the one sitting in the other dugout. Baltimore has nothing to play for except that.
A longtime sports reporter, Carlos Garcia has written about some of the biggest and most notable athletic events of the last 5 years. He has been credentialed to cover MLS, NBA and MLB games all over the United States. His work has been published on Fox Sports, Bleacher Report, AOL and the Washington Post.