Six games left in the National League and the wild card picture is basically settled at the top and nearly over at the bottom. The drama is in the seeding.
Entering Tuesday, the Cubs and Padres are both 87-69. The Phillies sit at 86-70. The Diamondbacks are 82-74, and they are running out of calendar.
Chicago’s magic number to clinch a spot is one. San Diego’s is two. Philadelphia’s is three. Arizona’s elimination number is three, which means the D-backs cannot be knocked out on Tuesday.
The Cubs Control Everything
Chicago won the season series against both Philadelphia and San Diego, so the Cubs hold every tiebreaker that matters. They also beat Arizona 4-2 head to head. That combination is why their magic number is down to one and why they are the only team here that fully controls its own outcome.
The schedule cooperates too, at least at first. Chicago gets Miami before closing on the road against a Boston team that has already clinched and may be resting people. If the Cubs want the top wild card spot and home field for all three games of that series, they have the clearest path to it.
San Diego Is the Hottest Team in the Race
The Padres are 14-4 in September. That is the best baseball anyone in this group has played, and it came at exactly the right time.
Their problem is the schedule. San Diego goes to Dodger Stadium for three, then hosts Arizona for the final series. They are running out Michael King, Robbie Ray and Nick Pivetta against Los Angeles, which is the right call with a magic number of two. The Dodgers have the NL West locked up but are still fighting Atlanta for the second seed and a bye, so this is not a series where LA rests everyone.
Philadelphia Drew the Short Straw
The Phillies are 8-10 in September and have slid from an NL East race into a fight for the third wild card spot. Their final six games are against the Brewers and the Rays, the two best teams in baseball. Nobody in the majors has a harder closing week.
Philadelphia does own one meaningful edge: the Phillies swept all six games against San Diego this season. In any multi-team tiebreaker scenario, that sweep is enormous.
Arizona Needs a Miracle and Knows It
FanGraphs gives the Diamondbacks a 5.4 percent chance to make the field. Arizona has to go to Colorado and sweep, or close to it, then sweep San Diego in the final series. A series loss in Denver ends the chase outright, and a Padres series win in Los Angeles does the same thing from the other direction. The D-backs and Padres split the season series 5-5.
Here is the honest read. Arizona is done. The Cubs are in. The real question is whether San Diego’s September surge is enough to steal the top seed from a Chicago team that holds every tiebreaker, and whether Philadelphia can survive the brutal closing stretch it was handed.
A longtime sports reporter, Carlos Garcia has written about some of the biggest and most notable athletic events of the last 5 years. He has been credentialed to cover MLS, NBA and MLB games all over the United States. His work has been published on Fox Sports, Bleacher Report, AOL and the Washington Post.