The 2026-27 free agent class is thin, which is precisely why Tarik Skubal is about to get paid more than any pitcher in history.
MLB Trade Rumors ranked Skubal first in its final preseason check-in on the class, projecting he could command more than $400 million total. His agent is Scott Boras, which removes any doubt about whether he tests the market.
The elbow scare did not slow him down
Skubal had a nano-needle procedure in May to remove a bone spur from his elbow, then was traded to the Dodgers. His ERA post-surgery is 2.70, identical to what it was before.
He is working on a fourth consecutive season with a strikeout rate above 30% and a walk rate under 5%. That combination puts him in a category with almost nobody.
“Skubal has a legitimate claim to being the best and most reliably dominant pitcher on the entire planet,” wrote MLBTR’s Steve Adams.
The midseason trade also made him ineligible for a qualifying offer, meaning no team surrenders draft compensation to sign him. That is worth real money on its own.
The records he is chasing
Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s $325 million stands as the largest pitcher contract in history, excluding Shohei Ohtani’s uniquely structured deal. The $43.33 million AAV record is shared by Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer.
A $400 million contract would shatter both. Given that Kyle Tucker reset the position-player AAV record at $57.1 million on a four-year, $240 million Dodgers deal last winter, the ceiling has moved.
Behind Skubal it drops off fast
MLBTR called the class “admittedly underwhelming,” and the rankings back that up. Second on the list is Teruaki Sato, a 27-year-old Hanshin Tigers infielder expected to be posted this winter, hitting .315 with a .393 on-base percentage, a .618 slugging mark and 35 home runs in NPB.
Third is Orioles lefty Trevor Rogers, who turns 29 in November and carries a 4.22 season ERA but has thrown 109 innings of 3.06 ball since early June with a 24.1% strikeout rate.
Bichette is the wild card
The class gets dramatically better if Bo Bichette opts out of two years and $84 million, taking a $5 million buyout.
His full-season line of .265/.317/.399 and a 99 wRC+ argues against it. His line since June 1, .298/.346/.464 with a 124 wRC+, argues for it. The Phillies reportedly offered him seven years and $190 to $200 million last offseason.
“If Bichette were out there, he would arguably be the most attractive free agent position player available,” wrote MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald.
The lockout looms over everything
Multiple players are weighing these decisions against an expected work stoppage under a new collective bargaining agreement. Michael King can walk away from two years and $58 million. Corbin Burnes almost certainly will not exercise his opt-out on four years and $140 million after Tommy John surgery cost him most of two seasons.
Uncertainty makes guaranteed money look better. Skubal is the one player in this class who does not have to care.
A longtime sports reporter, Carlos Garcia has written about some of the biggest and most notable athletic events of the last 5 years. He has been credentialed to cover MLS, NBA and MLB games all over the United States. His work has been published on Fox Sports, Bleacher Report, AOL and the Washington Post.