NLCS Game 1 has not been played. First pitch at American Family Field is 8 p.m. ET Sunday on FOX, so nothing about how this series opened is known yet. Plenty about it is already settled, and that part is worth more than one night’s box score.
The Milwaukee Brewers won 103 games, a franchise record, and locked up the No. 1 overall seed and home field for the entire postseason. The Los Angeles Dodgers won 100 and have to start this series on the road. Milwaukee holds the only structural edge either team owns, and it spent six months buying it.
How Both Teams Got Here
Milwaukee beat San Diego three games to one, closing it out 3-1 at Petco Park on Oct. 7. Robert Gasser handed over a lead after four innings, Aaron Ashby threw three hitless innings, Abner Uribe worked the hard spots, and Trevor Megill finished it for his second save of the series. That win also snapped a run of 12 consecutive postseason road losses, Milwaukee’s first playoff win away from home since the 2018 NLCS.
The Dodgers got through Atlanta in four games, winning the clincher 4-1 at Truist Park the same night. This is their third straight NLCS. For the Brewers it is a second straight trip and the fifth in franchise history, with the last three all coming against Los Angeles.
The Verified Game 1 Matchup
Milwaukee starts Jacob Misiorowski, who went 16-5 with a 1.80 ERA, 252 strikeouts and a 0.80 WHIP across 174 2/3 innings. He led the majors in ERA, strikeouts, WHIP and opponents’ average, which sat at .157. He threw a 104.8 mph first pitch in his NLDS Game 1 start and still only lasted four innings, giving up two runs with six strikeouts.
Los Angeles counters with Tarik Skubal, acquired at the deadline, who posted a 2.61 ERA over 10 regular-season starts with the Dodgers and owns a 1.97 ERA in seven career postseason starts. In NLDS Game 1 he allowed one run over six innings and struck out seven.
Those two will not decide this. Misiorowski has not cleared five innings in a playoff start, and Skubal’s team has Yoshinobu Yamamoto lined up behind him for Game 2. This series gets settled in the fifth through eighth innings, by two bullpens and two lineups.
Where I Land
Pat Murphy framed it plainly before the series: the Dodgers have “like an All-Star at every position,” and his answer was that “teams win.” He is right that it is the only answer available to him. Los Angeles is deeper at nearly every spot on the field.
Depth matters less in a best-of-seven than rotation top-end and crowd, and Milwaukee controls both for Games 1, 2, 6 and 7. Take the Brewers to win the opener and take the series if they hold home field. Lose one of the first two in Milwaukee and the math turns over to Los Angeles in a hurry.
A longtime sports reporter, Carlos Garcia has written about some of the biggest and most notable athletic events of the last 5 years. He has been credentialed to cover MLS, NBA and MLB games all over the United States. His work has been published on Fox Sports, Bleacher Report, AOL and the Washington Post.