The ALCS starts Monday, Oct. 12, at 8 p.m. ET at Tropicana Field, with the Cleveland Guardians at the Tampa Bay Rays. Every game airs on TBS, truTV or HBO Max. Tampa Bay earned the No. 1 seed and hosts Games 1, 2, 6 and 7, with Games 3, 4 and 5 in Cleveland on Oct. 15, 16 and 17.
Tampa Bay has announced its starter. Cleveland has not.
Drew Rasmussen is expected to open for the Rays after throwing eight scoreless innings with a no-hit bid into the eighth in ALDS Game 1 against the Yankees. Freddy Peralta and Nick Martinez are lined up behind him for Games 2 and 3. That is a settled, rested, best-of-seven rotation.
Cleveland Is Starting This Series on Fumes
The Guardians used all five ALDS games to beat the White Sox, which cost them both of their best arms for the opener. Gavin Williams started and finished elimination games 48 hours apart and will not be available until Game 3. Parker Messick, who posted a 2.56 ERA in the regular season, is unlikely before Game 2.
That leaves Foster Griffin, who struck out seven in 2 2/3 relief innings in ALDS Game 3, as the most likely Game 1 option, with Tanner Bibee, Joey Cantillo and an opener look behind Daniel Espino also in play. Cleveland has not committed publicly, and nothing here should be read as an announcement.
The bullpen is the one place Cleveland is clearly better. Cade Smith had a 1.95 ERA with 41 saves, Hunter Gaddis a 2.98, Erik Sabrowski a 2.61. The Guardians’ ERA from the seventh inning on was 3.55, against 3.78 for Tampa Bay. Patrick Bailey threw out 19 base stealers, the most of any catcher, which matters against a Rays club that stole 164 bases, the most in the American League.
The Regular Season Was a Beating
Tampa Bay won 98 games and finished with the best record in the AL. Cleveland finished 85-77, fourth best in the league, and lost five of six meetings with the Rays while being outscored 20-8. Two of those losses were 1-0. Cleveland’s only win came April 29, when Williams allowed one unearned run over 7 2/3 innings.
Junior Caminero is the reason the Rays lineup travels. He posted his second straight season of 40-plus homers and 100-plus RBIs and carried a .934 OPS at Tropicana Field. Yandy Diaz and Jonathan Aranda hit in front of him, and the Rays led the AL in defensive runs saved.
The Pick
Rays in six. Cleveland’s pitching staff is the hottest unit in the sport right now, and Jose Ramirez just posted a 1.187 OPS in the ALDS, but the Guardians have to survive two games in St. Petersburg with a bullpen game and a short starter before Williams can touch the ball.
Tampa Bay has advanced past the ALDS twice, in 2008 and 2020, and reached the World Series both times. The third time has the easier path.
A longtime sports reporter, Carlos Garcia has written about some of the biggest and most notable athletic events of the last 5 years. He has been credentialed to cover MLS, NBA and MLB games all over the United States. His work has been published on Fox Sports, Bleacher Report, AOL and the Washington Post.