Aaron Judge and Aaron Boone are not telling the same story, and that is the most interesting thing happening in the Bronx this week.
Judge says he intends to be in the lineup for Game 1 of the Wild Card Series next Tuesday. Boone initially sounded like a manager who had already written off his best player for that round.
Somebody is going to be wrong, and the Yankees’ October depends on which one.
The Injury
Judge strained the soleus muscle in his right calf and landed on the injured list, which ended his regular season. Soleus strains are sneaky. They feel fine walking and then bite the moment an athlete pushes off at full speed.
For a 6-foot-7 outfielder who generates enormous force through his lower half, that is not a small detail.
Judge’s own framing was measured. He said that is what the plan is, and that he will try to get his body ready so he is ready to go. That is a player stating an intention, not a doctor issuing a clearance.
Boone Softened, Which Tells You Something
Boone’s first take was pessimistic. He later moved toward hoping Judge heals as quickly as possible and becomes an option as soon as possible.
Managers do not walk back injury pessimism for fun. Either the medical read improved or Boone realized he had gotten in front of his player. Neither is a great look, but the second one is worse.
The Yankees Without Judge Are a Different Team
The splits are ugly and they are not subtle. With Judge in the lineup this season the Yankees went 41-25 and averaged 5.12 runs per game. Without him they went 49-42 and scored 4.15 per game.
That is nearly a full run of offense walking out the door. In a best-of-three Wild Card Series, a full run per game is the entire margin.
Judge’s own season was strange: .241 with 18 home runs, 41 RBIs and an .871 OPS across just 66 games. Down from his standard, and still the most feared bat in that lineup by a wide margin.
Boston Is Waiting
The Yankees are expected to draw the Red Sox in the Wild Card round, which is the worst possible matchup for a team missing its best hitter. Boston has pitched well and has no reason to fear a New York lineup without Judge in the middle of it.
The Call the Yankees Have to Make
Here is the uncomfortable truth. A compromised Judge at 70 percent is still better than most alternatives, but a compromised Judge who re-injures the calf in Game 1 ends the series and possibly the next round too.
New York should let him play. A best-of-three does not reward caution, and the Yankees have spent all season proving they cannot score without him.
Push the chips in. That is what Octobers are for.
A longtime sports reporter, Carlos Garcia has written about some of the biggest and most notable athletic events of the last 5 years. He has been credentialed to cover MLS, NBA and MLB games all over the United States. His work has been published on Fox Sports, Bleacher Report, AOL and the Washington Post.