Bo Bichette has a decision to make and neither answer is good.
Teams around the league expect Bichette to opt out of his deal with the New York Mets after the season. The numbers suggest that would be a serious mistake.
The Season Was Rough
Through 71 games, Bichette is slashing .239/.285/.361 for a .646 OPS with eight home runs, 40 RBIs, nine doubles and 36 runs scored. That is well below the standard he set in Toronto, and the games-played total tells its own story about availability.
He signed a three-year, $126 million deal with the Mets that includes opt-outs in each of the next two seasons. His 2026 package carries a $2 million base salary plus a $40 million signing bonus, for $42 million total.
Nobody Is Paying $42 Million for That
This is the arithmetic that should settle it. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com predicted Bichette stays with the Mets heading into 2027, and given the season he just had, it is hard to see a market offering anything close to $42 million a year.
Last offseason the Phillies reportedly put a seven-year offer in the $190 million to $200 million range in front of him. That offer does not exist anymore. Nobody hands out nine figures to a shortstop coming off a .646 OPS in 71 games.
So the choice is take the guaranteed $42 million or bet that the open market values his age and track record more than his 2026 production. One of those is a lot safer.
He Is 28, Which Changes Things
Here is the argument for opting out anyway. Bichette is 28 years old, which is young enough that a team could talk itself into a bounce-back and a long-term deal. Aging curves are kinder to hitters than pitchers, and one bad partial season is not a career.
The counterargument is that 2027 free agency is landing in a strange place. The collective bargaining agreement expires at 11:59 p.m. ET on Dec. 1, and a lengthy lockout is widely expected to follow. Free agents do not get paid well in uncertainty.
What the Mets Should Want
New York should quietly hope he stays. The Mets missed the playoffs, which gives Bichette all of October to weigh his options, and a 28-year-old shortstop on a known contract is a more useful asset than a hole at the position and a draft pick.
The Mets also paid a premium specifically for the years they thought were coming. Getting one bad season and then losing the player to an opt-out would be the worst of both outcomes.
If Bichette is smart, he takes the $42 million, plays a full healthy season, and opts out next winter from a position of strength. The market will not be better this year.
A longtime sports reporter, Carlos Garcia has written about some of the biggest and most notable athletic events of the last 5 years. He has been credentialed to cover MLS, NBA and MLB games all over the United States. His work has been published on Fox Sports, Bleacher Report, AOL and the Washington Post.