Game 1 of the National League Division Series was tied 2-2 at American Family Field when this published, with no final score yet. The shape of the series is already visible, though, and it favors San Diego more than a 103-win Milwaukee team should be comfortable with.
The Padres jumped Jacob Misiorowski for two runs in the second. Milwaukee answered in the third on Jackson Chourio’s two-run homer, a projected 420-foot shot that followed a Garrett Mitchell single. Misiorowski sat at 88 pitches through four innings, which tells you how much work San Diego’s lineup made him do.
Misiorowski Is The Series, And That Is Milwaukee’s Problem
Misiorowski went 16-5 with a 1.80 ERA and 252 strikeouts, leading the majors in both ERA and strikeouts while holding hitters to a .157 average. He is the NL Cy Young frontrunner and he will likely start twice if this goes the distance. He is also the reason the Brewers’ rotation reads as top-heavy rather than deep.
Robbie Ray lasted 2 2/3 innings for San Diego on Saturday, giving up two runs on four hits with two walks before rookie Bradgley Rodriguez took over with the bases loaded. The Padres do not need Ray to be excellent. They need him to be brief, because of what they have waiting behind him.
San Diego’s Bullpen Decides This
The Padres’ relief corps posted the best expected ERA in baseball at 3.33, with Mason Miller closing and multi-inning arms like Adrian Morejon and Jason Adam in front of him. In a best-of-five where every game is live in the sixth inning, that group is worth more than rotation depth. Craig Stammen, in his first season as San Diego’s manager, has the tools to steal a short series.
San Diego’s offense has also been the best in the majors since the start of September, and the position-by-position edges tilt their way at third base with Manny Machado, in right with Fernando Tatis Jr., in center with Jackson Merrill, at shortstop with Xander Bogaerts and at first with Ty France. Machado hit 30 homers and drove in 91. Tatis batted .289.
The Pick: Padres In Five
Milwaukee earned the No. 1 overall seed with a franchise-record 103-59 season, a fourth straight NL Central title and a 55-26 home record. The Brewers also sat idle for a week while the Padres were shutting out the Cubs 8-0 and then closing them out 4-1. Rest helps pitchers. It does much less for hitters.
San Diego, the No. 4 seed, finished a third consecutive 90-win season and took the regular-season series from Milwaukee 4-2. This is the first postseason meeting between the clubs. Give me the Padres in five, with Misiorowski winning the games he starts and San Diego taking the other three in the late innings.
Game 2 is Sunday at 4 p.m. ET in Milwaukee. Games 3 and 4 move to San Diego on Tuesday and Wednesday, with a potential Game 5 back at American Family Field on Friday.
A longtime sports reporter, Carlos Garcia has written about some of the biggest and most notable athletic events of the last 5 years. He has been credentialed to cover MLS, NBA and MLB games all over the United States. His work has been published on Fox Sports, Bleacher Report, AOL and the Washington Post.