Tarik Skubal is going to break the pitcher market this winter. That became obvious the moment the Dodgers gave up three prospects for two months of him, and it got more obvious Monday when he threw seven scoreless innings in Cincinnati to clinch Los Angeles a playoff berth.
Skubal turns 30 in November. He won the AL Cy Young in back-to-back seasons, 2024 and 2025. He spent his entire career in Detroit until the Tigers dealt him to Los Angeles at the August trade deadline for outfielder Zyhir Hope and right-handers River Ryan and Brady Smith. It was a pure rental. He hits the open market the day the season ends.
Detroit had its chances
The Tigers could have avoided all of this. After Skubal’s first Cy Young in 2024, Detroit reportedly offered him a four-year deal worth less than $80 million. That number looks absurd now and looked shaky then. Negotiations never got close, and by the summer of 2026 the front office decided a prospect haul was worth more than a walk year with its best player.
Skubal has not slammed the door on a reunion. He has said publicly he hopes to resume talks with Detroit once he reaches free agency. Whether the Tigers can stomach paying five times what they refused to pay two years ago is a different question entirely.
One wrinkle matters enormously here. Because he was traded midseason, Skubal cannot receive a qualifying offer. MLB Trade Rumors projects the 2026-27 QO at roughly $23.1 million, up from this year’s $22.025 million, and Skubal is exempt from all of it. Signing him costs money and nothing else: no forfeited draft pick, no international bonus penalty. For a mid-market club that normally flinches at compensation, that is a real door being held open.
What he actually gets
The record for a pitcher is Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s 12-year, $325 million deal with the Dodgers. Skubal is expected to clear it comfortably. Reporting throughout the summer has consistently placed him north of $300 million, with a legitimate shot at becoming the first pitcher to sign for $400 million.
He will get there. Put me down for something around nine years and $450 million, structured with the deferrals and opt-outs that have become standard at the top of this market.
The supporting case is simple. He is a left-handed ace with two Cy Youngs before his 30th birthday, there is no draft compensation attached, and the alternatives are all a tier down. The depth of this free agent class is starting pitching, and the depth is real: Freddy Peralta, Trevor Rogers, Kevin Gausman, Kris Bubic, Jack Flaherty, Zac Gallen, Shota Imanaga, Casey Mize, Nick Pivetta, Brady Singer, Shane Bieber and Brandon Woodruff, plus opt-out decisions from Michael King, Tatsuya Imai and Clay Holmes. A crowded second tier drives the price of the only first-tier arm straight up, because losing out on Skubal means settling.
Where he should sign
He should stay in Los Angeles, and I believe he will.
The Dodgers did not surrender Hope, Ryan and Smith to rent a pitcher for two months and then wave goodbye in November. They have the payroll structure, they have the deferral machinery, and they can offer the one thing Detroit never could: a roster that wins 95 games without him. Skubal is about to sign the last enormous contract of his career. Signing it with the back-to-back defending champions is not a hard call.
The Tigers reunion makes for a nice story and I do not buy it. Detroit set its price in 2024. The market has since moved a few hundred million dollars past it.
A longtime sports reporter, Carlos Garcia has written about some of the biggest and most notable athletic events of the last 5 years. He has been credentialed to cover MLS, NBA and MLB games all over the United States. His work has been published on Fox Sports, Bleacher Report, AOL and the Washington Post.